Good morning If you missed our tropics update yesterday, check this out as it shuts down all of the Atlantic Basin items we’re watching. We’ll update a few points below based on what we see this morning.
Meanwhile, there may be a slog in some spots today due to rain. I think there will be at least some rain in most areas today and some of it could be quite heavy causing flooding on the roads. We’re currently holding back on a Level 1 Flood upgrade, but there will likely be some neighborhoods that will see some water on the streets for a while today.
As of 6:45 a.m. this morning, showers and storms are already marching inland past I-10. Coverage should continue to extend north as the day progresses, and again we have a feeling that much of the area will see at least some precipitation today. Areas south and east of downtown Houston have the highest chances of heavier rainfall, and these likely include the Beaumont and Port Arthur areas.
Today, look for an average area about half an inch wide, with a little less north and west and a little more south and east. Isolated areas that see repeated rain could easily see 3 or 4 inches or a little more today, again most likely south and east of Houston. Road flooding is the primary concern and while we are not issuing a Level 1 Warning, you should be aware of this potential in certain locations today. We will be monitoring the precipitation situation and will update or escalate as needed today.
Clouds and showers are likely to hold temperatures far behind today, with 80s for most and some low 90s far inland and towards College Station.
The pattern remains quite favorable for locally heavy rains tomorrow as well. Throughout the day look out for scattered to numerous showers and storms. Due to their nature, not everyone will see rain again tomorrow, but those who do can see fairly healthy rain. More this Tuesday morning.
rest of the week
Things appear to settle down a bit Wednesday through Friday as we return to a more typical pattern of daily showers and storms associated with the sea breezes and daytime heat. Some of the rain will be heavy, but the most common areas to see heavier rain will be south and east of Houston. Daily highs will be near average to maybe a tad cooler than average, with highs in the 80’s to almost 90 and lows in the 70’s.
Labor Day weekend
At this point we expect more of it. The good news is that models that were aggressive in developing a tropical system near the Yucatan late this week and over the weekend have eased off somewhat over the past 24 hours. This means there should almost certainly be no impact on the Texas Labor Day weekend outlook, just isolated showers and storms each day with highs within a degree or two of 90 degrees.
rest of the tropics
The rest of the tropics still look active today. There are four areas to monitor in the National Hurricane Center’s five-day forecasts.
The good news for us? As noted in yesterday’s Tropical Outlook, none of these areas are of particular importance to Texas or the Gulf Coast. We will continue to monitor, particularly those that may develop near the Lesser Antilles, but at this point there is nothing in the model guidelines to worry us for the next week or longer.