Heavy storms likely this afternoon | WDVM25 and DCW50

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Although it’s been pretty muggy all weekend, we really didn’t experience any real warmth until yesterday when we jumped into the 80’s. That combination then led to some isolated storms last night, a small harbinger of what’s to come here today. For the moment we have very calm and mild conditions this morning with patchy fog. This will all quickly dissipate in favor of the sun by afternoon, heating things up when a strong cold front rolls in from the west. The ingredients are just right for the likelihood of severe storms: arrival time of the front in the afternoon, some heating ahead, and plenty of available moisture and energy in the atmosphere. Storms will roll in along a broken line along and west of I-81 from 1 p.m. to 3 p.m., then east of I-81 from 4 p.m. to 6 p.m. We should be in the clear once the cold front clears I-95, which looks set to take shape around 7pm tonight. The main threats to watch out for are damaging winds and hail, and while the threat from tornadoes is small, it’s not entirely out of the question for some to turn up. Stay weather conscious out there today folks.

Once this activity ends we will have a much nicer midweek. High pressure will bring back plenty of sunshine on Tuesday, and there will be noticeably less humidity as drier air rolls in with brisk west-northwest winds. A few clouds return on Wednesday as we stay warm and cozy in the 70’s. A warm front is expected to move north through Thursday, bringing the next chance for showers and storms. There’s still a healthy degree of disagreement between models on how intense that rain and storm activity might be, but just be prepared for wetter weather either way.

If this warm front moves north, we’ll be turning right around the corner, straight into summer. A Bermuda High will build off the Atlantic coast, meaning high temperatures will shoot into the upper 80s on both Friday and Saturday. Make sure you grab cold water and sunscreen for those days, but over time the sun will be a little less prevalent on Saturday. The next storm system will roll in from the Great Lakes, with the exact timing of storm showers still in question. For now it appears Saturday night will be the best time to do so, with a few showers lasting through Sunday morning. Behind that system we’ll be cooling down and clearing out again and feeling a lot less summery early next week.

Everyone stay healthy out there and have a great Monday!

7-day forecast:

Monday: Morning fog and shifting clouds will give way to afternoon storms, some of which could intensify with damaging winds, hail and some possible spin-up tornadoes. Wind: WSW 10-15 mph, Top Speed: 81 (77-84)

Monday night: Storms end quickly with clear skies. Wind: W 8-12 mph, Low: 55 (50-58)

Tuesday: Mostly sunny and at times windy. Wind: WNW 10-20 mph, High: 77 (74-81), Low: 51 (47-54)

Wednesday: Partly cloudy skies. The highs are in the 70’s and the lows are in the mid to high 50’s.

Thursday: Mostly cloudy with isolated showers and thunderstorms. The highs are in the upper 70’s to low 80’s and the lows are in the low to mid 60’s.

Friday: Partly cloudy skies. The highs are in the mid to high 80’s and the lows are in the mid to high 60’s.

Saturday: Mostly cloudy with isolated showers that are possible late. Highs are in the upper 80s to low 90s, lows are in the 60s.

Sunday: Slightly cloudy with scattered showers in the morning. The highs are in the mid to high 70’s and the lows are in the 50’s.

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